In the general scheme of things, the results of local elections in England rarely change much. Sure, the control of a few councils might change, but such is the ambition-lite approach of many local Labour leaders up and down the country, it’s a fair bet that voters won’t notice a great deal of difference should many local authorities move from Labour control after 7 May. Notwithstanding that, this set of results could be significant in other ways, signalling a further reshaping of the political map and perhaps also ushering in a Labour leadership contest.
If the opinion polls are to be believed, then Labour will lose control of many of the local authorities it currently runs. In fact, with some polls predicting a Labour meltdown, these local election results could be one of the worst performances ever for a party whose right-wing leaders boasted on taking office that the grown ups were back in charge. They should own the disaster if that’s what transpires. Will Starmer survive such an outcome? It’s very doubtful and there will be no tears shed on the left should he be shuffled off the stage and onto the corporate speaking circuit a little earlier than he’d planned.
But these elections are about more than Labour. Of arguably more consequence is the prospect of big gains for the racist Reform, with some of their party insiders predicting that they will gain over a thousand seats on Thursday night and win at least a thousand in England alone. According to the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg (admittedly never the most reliable of political sages) some projections put Reform well over that, garnering at least 1,500 out of the 5,000 or so seats that are being contested in these elections.
Reform gains will be a disaster for workers
Make no mistake, such a result would be a disaster for working class people and a clear threat to the social cohesion of many multicultural communities up and down the country. It would also mark the failure of Labour to deliver real change – or indeed any change – to the lives of voters, but it’s also a failure of the left to get its message across to counter the lies and bile peddled by the likes of Farage and his racist outfit.
Reform’s likely success in England is unlikely to stop at its borders though. The party is also eyeing up Scotland and Wales where they are targeting second place in both of those important national elections. The Left Lane has covered the prospects for Wales and Scotland in some detail elsewhere on our website but suffice to say that significant gains for the racists in both countries would be a further setback for workers and a further worrying development in the arena of electoral politics.
In the absence of very few genuine left alternative candidates with any hope of winning standing in these elections, the Green Party will carry the hopes of many progressive voters as they mark their cross in the ballot box. This election marks the first national test of Zack Polanski’s leadership of the party and he will be hoping to build on the success of Hannah Spencer’s win in Gorton and Denton to inflict more pain on Starmer’s ailing Labour Party.
There’s no doubt that the Greens will win significant numbers of seats, especially in London where my sources tell me that Labour insiders fear that they will lose control of a couple of councils in the capital. Such an outcome would certainly be embarrassing for Starmer, who only this week said that Polanski wasn’t fit to lead a political party, and would certainly put the frighteners on the 50 London Labour MPs who will fear for their seats. No wonder then that the establishment is weighing in with the tried and tested antisemitism smears on the Green’s leader in a bid to depress his party’s growing support. A decent performance by the Greens on Thursday is to be welcomed and will be a sign that smears can be beaten back if you stand firm. And Polanski needs to do just that, not be forced into making needless apologies like he did last week.
It’s important to point out of course that the rising tide of voter support for the Greens could have come the way of Your Party if it had got its act together and not squandered the massive potential it had in its hands when it was first set up last year. As we know, that potential has dissipated and all but disappeared and is well documented elsewhere in The Left Lane. So Thursday’s election results, while not changing much as far as the direct experience of people on the doorsteps are concerned, are likely to offer much food for thought for those on the left – not all of it good – and will probably usher in the end of the worst Labour leader ever to hold the position. So, it’s not all bad then.
